Back in April we noted that forecasters were predicting that the 2012 hurricane season would be less active than normal. They predicted that this hurricane season would bring 4 hurricanes and 10 named tropical storms.
However, since that time they have raised their projections for this hurricane season. The projections were increased to 13 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. They also project 2 of those 5 hurricanes will be major hurricanes defined as category 3 or stronger.
The revised projections would still be slightly below average for hurricanes in the region that includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. An average season brings about 12 tropical storms, with 6 hurricanes and three major hurricanes ranking at Category 3 or higher.
Last year we saw 19 named storms. Of those, 7 of them turned into hurricanes and 3 of them turned into major hurricanes measured at Category 3 or stronger.
Part of the reason for the increased forecast since April is due largely to the uncertainty as to whether an El Nino will develop later this summer as well as somewhat marginal Atlantic basin conditions.
Although Florida was again spared in the busy 2012 season, one should not put their guard down.
Forecasters don’t like to make landfall predictions, but they are able to say that certain areas may be more prone to being hit by a hurricane this year. South Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas are being pinpointed as areas where chances of landfall are greater.
It’s certainly frightening to hear that South Florida is at great risk this year to be struck by a hurricane, even if there are potentially less hurricanes in total this year. We’ve been spared over the last few years, but hurricanes are a fact of life in South Florida.
Although this often leads us to brush off hurricanes, it’s important to be prepared.
If you ever find yourself in a situation where you believe that your insurance company is treating you unfairly, don’t hesitate to contact Alvarez & Barbara, LLP. We have considerable experience dealing with insurance companies and working to make sure our clients get what they are owed